More on the Supreme Court's gay marriage cases

At this point, my predictions on the 2 gay marriage cases at the Supreme Court are 5-4 striking down DOMA (in Windsor v. U.S.) and requiring that states recognize gay marriage (Hollingsworth v. Perry--the Prop. 8 case). The precedents, e.g. Loving, Romer, Lawrence v. Texas, etc) all suggest that result (as did O'Connor's concurring opinion clearly did in Lawrence).   Kennedy will be the swing vote.  His prior rulings in Romer and Lawrence suggest that is the way he will vote.  However, Roberts fooled us in the Obamacare case and there is always the possibility that Kennedy will surprise us.

Many are hoping for sweeping, clear-cut rulings in the 2 gay marriage cases the Supreme Court will hear.  However, there could be some procedural and other issues that the Court could decide without giving us blockbuster rulings. In other words, the Court could "punt."